US Elections, a plebiscite on Trump
United States vote today. The president is not elected, it is the renewal of the House of Representatives in its entirety and a third of the Senate; in addition to a group of governors and other local powers in what is known as midterm elections, precisely because they are held midway through the presidential term.
That is why they always end up becoming a kind of referendum on the management of the current Head of State, it is nothing personal against Donald Trump, the difference is that the management that is now evaluated is one of the most controversial in history. of that country, there are those who say that the tycoon become a political force by extravagance, is the most polarizing character that has existed in the US political leadership, true or not, the elections on Tuesday have also had it as a center and the other extreme, a Barack Obama, who in his capacity as former president has embodied the strongest democratic opposition.
There are several possible scenarios
The possible scenarios are three: that the Republicans, the party in power, maintain the bicameral majority that it has up to now and that makes Trump good governance, while at the same time paving the way for reelection in 2020, because it would mean that the Americans applaud the ranting of their leader in his desire for America first, America great again.
And that translates into, as we have seen: trade wars, international isolation, divorce from any pact or global commitment, a goodbye to multi lateralism, xenophobia to a pulse, false promises of peace when it hardens the hand in other conflicts, and at home: denunciations of all kinds, a train of resignations from the once close.
All accompanied by an unpredictable attitude but always charged with lack of judgment when issuing criteria on a particular issue.
Democrats can recover the entire Congress
As a second option the red party could lose its preponderance and the democrats recover the whole Congress.
The result would be a divided government, and all tied hand in hand, putting obstacles from the executive to the legislative and vice versa, but this seems the least likely outcome.
Although it is difficult to understand, not everything that we believe negative of Trump’s decisions is unfortunate for its internal audience. Just to cite the example of the migrant caravan, a campaign leader, its attack against those people in a situation of despair and firm course to the happy promised-land is well seen among its most loyal voters who do not want “the invasion” as it has qualified its president to the human tide.
The humanitarian crisis benefits Trump
The humanitarian crisis has come as a glove to show the savior of the superiority and purity of the American citizen, in the reductionist version of the gentile. What some polls point to is a fractionated Congress: Republican Upper House and the Democratic Lower. It happens that it is in the area of the election of the representatives where people decide for their immediate environment rather than for the national mood.
The truth is that, given this situation, it would be necessary to negotiate hard, which implies giving in, to pass laws. In addition, the Blues will not lose the opportunity to undertake investigative commissions to question Trump, and tripping after another would be working the way for the presidential.
As a final point, I tell you, today it transpired that Facebook blocked more than a hundred accounts for “continued inauthentic behavior”.
And it is worth remembering that Donald Trump arrived at the White House for data manipulation, the scandal of the British consultancy Cambridge Analytic sustains it, and even without proving Russian plot of interference gives the touch of grace to the theory.
We are awaiting the results of these elections to understand what is coming in the next two years for the country that interprets its self-granted role of leader and judge of the world.