Cyclonic season 2018: how to interpret its forecast?

Nowadays, it is frequent to listen to people speaking about several types of forecasts, some of them very accurate. So happens with the ones who reveal when would happen natural phenomena, like the astronomic ones. In these cases, are known all the varieties of the process and coming from physics and Mathematics, scientists only obtain one answer. A good example are the Sun or Moon eclipses, these one are announced even at the accurate hour it is supposed to happen.

But there are other natural processes influenced by numberless factors, which still represent a question for the science. That is why, almost always it is obtained a forecast of higher or lower certitude. It happens for instance, in medicine. How many times have we said that in biology two plus two is not always four! This idea could be applied also to meteorologist phenomena particularly hurricanes.

Since it is a very sensitive subject to Cuban people, generally speaking we are pendant to the moment in which we know how active will be a season. But how to interpret in the right way this forecast?

The fact that we speak about a season little active, normal or with high activity is only an estimation about the way in which the meteorologist conditions could generate a higher quantity of hurricanes, compared to a normal year. But the most relevant thing is if those phenomena are going to affect our country.

For instance, the cyclonic season of 1963 was not active at all. We barely had nine tropical cyclones. However, hurricanes like Flora provoked serious damages in the Caribbean and Cuba, in a very particular way.

In return, the year 1995 registered a total of 21 systems of low pressures but none of them travel through our country.

Despite the scientific advances, it is still too difficult to know with months in advance if a tropical cyclone will pass or not by a determined area. Thus, before uncertainty, the best attitude as signal the experts, is to be always prepared.

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